eCom Unity #13 - 2025 Profitability Forecasting Model

All that stuff that helps you build a better, more profitable eCom business.

Author

Maximilian Rast
12 Dec

Less than three weeks until 2025.

By now, most brands are (or should be) knee-deep in planning, mapping out what’s ahead. Easier said than done, right?

That’s why today, I’m sharing a profitability forecasting model to help you project how your business will grow over the next few years, based on your past customer behavior and driven by marketing efforts.

To ensure you can find out how to maximize your potential

Let’s get into it:

Deep-Dive | Forecasting Your 2025 Profitability Precisely

The next few weeks can be crucial for how your eCom business will do in all of 2025.

With the slim margins in eCom and the working capital needed to grow, a good forecast is crucial to maximize profitability (and avoid disaster).

Unlike most people, I believe a forecast for an eCom company should not be done by finance.

But by marketing.

As they are the ones that are going to be responsible for driving results.

So creating a forecast without heavy involvement from marketing is just a fairy tale.

However, creating an accurate forecast can be daunting. It’s hard to know today what next year will look like.

That’s where the forecasting model I built comes in to support you.

Creating an accurate forecast of the future is actually easier than it might seem.

Why?

Because you can leverage your historic cohort performance to get an extremely accurate forecast of how much repeat customer revenue you can expect in the future.

All you need to do in this model is:

  1. Plug in your historic cohort performance

  2. Enter your margin structure

And the model will tell you exactly how much revenue and margin you can expect from your existing customers in the upcoming year.

All you need to do then is play around with marketing budget and customer acquisition costs and the model will tell you exactly how much total revenue and profit you will generate.

Plus, you can adjust these metrics to find the marketing investment sweet spot that will generate the largest possible lifetime profit.

I’m explaining how to use it in this video (also linked in the sheet):

Thank you for reading :)

I am on a mission to help eCom brands build better, more profitable businesses. If you missed any past issues, you can catch up on all of them here.

I have built one 8-figure and one 9-figure eCom brand in the past and with Klar, I work with over 700 eCom brands today.

If you have specific questions you would like me to cover next, just reply to this email.

Have a great week.

Max ✌️

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