eCom Unity #5 - BFCM Controlling Model

All that stuff that helps you build a better, more profitable eCom business.

Author

Maximilian Rast
17 Oct

It’s T-43 days.

With Black Friday just 6 weeks away, I’d like to dedicate this newsletter issue to getting BFCM prep at the forefront.

So today is all about that - specifically controlling your marketing efficiency when increasing budgets, which can be tricky since the payoff is uncertain.

Let’s talk about how to approach it effectively with a targets forecast model I built:

A BFCM Controlling Model

Last Black Friday, I saw too many brands wasting too much money on inefficient marketing.

That’s why I created an Excel model that allows you to forecast exactly what your target marketing efficiency metrics should be for each day as you ramp up spend for BFCM.

Why is this crucial?

More and more brands are now trying to generate demand over a longer period leading up to Black Friday (blue graph), rather than just capturing demand short term. This allows them to better capture the increased demand at the sales event.

The issue with this is that people take time to convert.

The increased spend to generate more demand for BFCM is an investment without an immediate return.

Even for products with a low AOV, we see a 1-2 week lag between the initial interaction and a purchase. Meaning that spending 20% more today won’t lead to 20% more customers today.

So you need to have an indicator that lets you know if what you’re doing is working. And that’s hard to track as you’re only capturing this newly generated demand later.

That’s where my targets model comes in.

It forecasts the expected daily impact of your increased spend on your efficiency metrics based on your customers’ time to conversion.

Allowing you to see the incremental impact of each additional dollar invested over time and understand if what you do is working or not when comparing your actuals to these target metrics.

To make quick decisions during BFCM and keep efficient customer acquisition down the line.

Here’s the modeling sheet with an explanation video (make your own copy):

BFCM Targets Model - by Klar

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1t06-SE2X1sYnTEK1N6bqKybxO7Cz1WVdsHV60eVaZOc/edit?gid=1289968496#gid=1289968496

I also covered this topic in more detail in a BFCM masterclass here (it’s the one at the bottom). It also contains guides on emails, paid social, Google, and CRO: BFCM Masterclass.

It’s in German unfortunately but I created an 🇬🇧 English version of the doc I’m walking through: Masterclass Notion Page.

Thank you for reading :)

I am on a mission to help eCom brands build better, more profitable businesses. If you missed any past issues, you can catch up on all of them here.

I have built one 8-figure and one 9-figure eCom brand in the past and with Klar, I work with over 700 eCom brands today.

If you have specific questions you would like me to cover next, just reply to this email.

Have a great week.

Max ✌️

Not part of the eCom Unity yet? (Brands only)

Click here to directly exchange with hundreds of other eCom decision-makers from the coolest brands such as Kapten & Son, Purelei, KoRo, Junglück, Blackroll, and many more in our closed Slack community.

No agencies. No sales pitches. High-class content & events. 100% free.